February 2026 existing-home sales
Existing home sales picked up in February, despite falling short of the prior year pace. Existing-home sales rose 1.7% to 4.09M in February from an upwardly revised January (3.91M to 4.02M), and were down 1.4% from one year prior (4.15M), a smaller drop than was seen in January. Pending home sales were lower in January from both the prior month and year nationwide, but trends varied across regions, with the South and West seeing gains from the prior year. Although active inventory plateaued in February, new listings improved nationwide and in all regions except the Northeast, showing an increase in options for home shoppers in February.
Weather-Driven Regional Divergence and the “Pull-Forward” Risk for March Sales
Another blizzard that dumped snow and ice across much of the Northeast is likely to have disrupted some closings and weighed on the data in that region. Indeed, home sales slipped 6.0% in the Northeast in February and were 4.1% below prior year pace. However, home sales increased in all other regions, jumping by a notable 8.2% in the West with smaller moves in the Midwest (1.1%) and South (1.6%). Buyers who closed on a home in February benefited from some of the lowest mortgage rates since September 2022. Mortgage rates moved even lower in February, before beginning to tick higher in March as conflict in Iran introduced uncertainty and the volatility in oil prices that could spill over into the prices of other goods and services.
Lower rates are likely to boost March home sales, but the economic uncertainty that stems from the conflict is likely to have some offsetting effects and could create a bit of a rush among consumers to lock in a mortgage rate before they tick higher. If this happens, we would see a boost in March sales because buyers who might otherwise have purchased later in the year are pulled forward, and this would then dampen sales later in the year.
Home Prices Rose Modestly
Home sales prices grew very modestly, with the median price climbing just 0.3% from a year ago to $398,000. The typical U.S. asking price slipped somewhat in February, a sign that sellers are coming to market with moderated expectations in 2026, but this is a regionalized trend. Although a majority of the 50-largest markets saw softer prices, home prices grew in other markets where supply has been more limited. Sales prices also mirror this regionalization, climbing in the Northeast (+3.3%) and Midwest (+2.3%), slipping in the West (-0.9%), and remaining close to flat in the South (+0.2%)
Inventory Gaps Still Restricting Regional Sales
Compared to one year ago regionally, the South saw modest sales gains (+0.5%) while sales lagged modestly in the West (-1.3%) and more notably in the Midwest (-4.1%) and Northeast (-4.1%). This suggests that inventory availability continues to hold back further sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest and underscores the importance of continuing to build to address the housing supply gap while also hammering home the need to build homes in the regions where supply is most constricted.
